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Frankston and Southern Melbourne have too few local jobs, today …

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In Frankston, and more broadly across South Eastern Melbourne, access to work is arguably the most critical issue impacting on our community and feeds into other regional problems like social disadvantage, economic inequity and stagnating productivity.

Frankston’s headline job statistics don’t read well with a consistently documented history of upper-band unemployment and lower-band workforce participation.

But this doesn’t really come as a surprise, given the residents in the City of Frankston have:-
• fewer than 28 local jobs per 100 residents
• access to less than 10% of Melbourne’s job market via a 60-minute public transport commute, and
• only between 10-30% of Melbourne’s jobs reachable by a 45-minute private vehicle commute.

…and these will be even scarcer in the future

Over the next 15 years, Outer Southern Population Growth will continue to outstrip Employment Growth

Population growth – yoy

+1.8%

400-480k additional people

Plan Melbourne population forecasts
Source; Dept of Transport Planning
& Infrastructure 2014

Job growth – yoy

+0.5%

105k additional jobs

Projection based on the 2011-2015 run rate
Source: Dept of Economic Development, Jobs,
Transport and Resources 2016 Analysis

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Looking forward to 2051, Plan Melbourne forecasts that population growth in the South-Eastern Melbourne will average 1.8% year-on-year but regional job growth will languish at 0.5%.

To stabilise our local job market, at current levels, in the face of such rapid population growth Frankston will need to be creating a minimum of 850 additional local jobs each year.

To see full list of Advocacy Priorities, click here

 

 

 

Key Frankston Job, employment and population trends (ABS Census 2016)

 

Local Jobs supply:

Largely due to the success of the Carrum Downs Industrial estate, the City of Frankston has increased its local job base from 28 jobs per 100 residents, in 2011, to 31 jobs per 100 residents in 2016.  

Total Unemployment rate:

Frankston’s total unemployment rate of 6.4% is comparable to the Greater Melbourne average, although this varies significantly across our municipality with some of our worst performing areas being three times higher than Frankston’s headline average.
(Figure 1)

Figure 1: total unemployment rates across Frankston

Youth and Senior Unemployment:

It is a different story at either end of the age spectrum. Compared to other parts of Melbourne, our region’s youth (13.9%) and senior (5.1%) unemployment rates are poor

Frankston North has one of Victoria’s highest youth unemployment rates (24.7%). One-in-four young Frankston North residents are looking for work.

Young people in Frankston ‘struggle harder’ than most Melbournians to secure their first job.  Frankston workers who experience a ‘career shock’ are also much more vulnerable.  Many over-55 workers in Frankston have difficulty changing roles, retraining and finding new work.

 

Household income:

Frankston’s average household income is significantly lower than Metropolitan Melbourne’s norm.  Compared with other parts of Melbourne, Frankston’s lack of local industry impedes local wage growth.  

Only 30% of Frankston’s dual parent families with children have a weekly income of greater than $2500 compared with the Metropolitan average of 37%; and only 30% of Frankston’s single parent families with children having a weekly income of greater than $1250 compared with the Metropolitan average of 44%.   

In Frankston North the average household income is the eighth lowest in Victoria at just $776/week.

 

Employment trends:

The success of the Carrum Downs industrial precinct has shifted local employment trends over the last decade.  Frankston’s employment base grew by 8750 jobs (Source: Plan Melbourne) and now almost 20% more locals now are employed.

Source: Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, unpublished data 2019)

Workforce participation trends:

With the exception of our retiree population, Frankston’s thriving local job market has encouraged more people to work, lifting our average workforce participation (Figure 2).

Frankston’s improved employment market has been most transformational for “mothers” (Females aged 30-54yo) who now have a much wider and more diversified range of jobs near where they live.

Figure 2: Frankston workforce participation trends over time

Population trend:

Having 21st century businesses on our doorstep has begun to change the type of local employment opportunities available to Frankston residents.  And whilst relative to metropolitan Melbourne, Frankston still has far fewer young people aged 20-35, our decade long industrial boom has meant that Frankston school leavers don’t habitually ‘move away to find work”.

Figure 3: Frankston population trends over time

 

So, where are Frankston’s employment trends heading over the next decade?:

Even before COVID struck, Frankston’s job growth over the next decade was forecast to slow, without a proactive approach to expanding Frankton’s successful high-tech manufacturing sector.

 

Objectives

For Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

Frankston needs to Stimulate Job Growth by: Improving Transport links, Safeguarding our Manufacturing Sector; Leading in Health Research and Building a vibrant City Centre.

fltw

Why?…

Allowing people to access more jobs in reasonable
commute times increase employment; aids
workforce participation; boosts workforce
productivity; and in turn increases local wages &
investment.

How?…

Frankston rail extension
including Langwarrin Park & Ride
30-minute commuter trains to Flinders St
• South-eastern International Airport

adam

Why?…

Carrum Downs manufacturers are creating jobs
13 times faster than the Southern regional
average. Generating $2.85bn in output and
employing 6,000 people this precinct is
economically more important than Frankston’s
CAA.

How?…

• Latham Road duplication
• Industrial land zoning
• Supply-chain transportation & Ports
Energy Supply certainty

lihr

Why?…

A Monash University (globally ranked #80) and
Peninsula Health partnership will allow
Frankston to lead academic research on some
of the next centuries most pressing health
issues: age-care; chronic illness (diabetes,
heart disease, dementia), and addiction.

How?…

Specialised teaching Hospital
✓Leading academic research facility
$15m Funded
✓Monash campus redevelopment
$35m+ Funded

vce

Why?…

A populated and vibrant city will boost the local
economy and increase investment appetite.
Demographic diversity is crucial to addressing
social inequality and educational outcomes.

How?…

• City parking
• Planning
✓Gateway Aesthetics-
Station $68m Funded